The latest Euroconstruct projections (extracts summarized below in italics) have been tempered in outlook to just under 2% growth in 2015 (though this is at odds with UEPG projections), with maybe slightly over 2% growth in 2016 and 2017. However, achieving such a continued return to growth assumes the political will and ability to stimulate the conditions for economic stability and revival in Europe. The European aggregates industry, now even leaner, greener and more sustainable than ever before, is ready to play its part in that much-awaited return to economic growth.
Euroconstruct predicts a steady recovery path:
EUROCONSTRUCT predicted a GDP growth of 1.9% for 2015 in its 19 countries, up from 1.8% forecast at midyear. For both in 2016 and 2017, a 2% GDP growth is estimated (compared to 2% and 1.7% respectively previously forecasted). For 2018, a 1.9% hike is expected in GDP in the EUROCONSTRUCT region.
Compared to the similar table of the Warsaw EUROCONSTRUCT Conference (Summer 2015), construction output in 2016 will be more positive than predicted (as below). Starting from the deepest 2012 and 2013 years, construction output growth of 2016 seems to be very positive, regarding all 19 countries of EUROCONSTRUCT.
Development of main segments:
The biggest influencing factor in residential construction is the massive influx of migrants arriving in Western European countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and to Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. This will likely have an impact on housing, creating more need for housing, either new construction or renting or purchasing existing homes. In 2015, the share of repair, renovation and maintenance has reached 60% of the total residential market.
As far as non-residential construction performance is concerned, in 2016 without exception, all countries are optimistic about their non-residential market, and only two countries await minimal setbacks for the year after. The countries with predicted negative growth rates in new non-residential construction are Finland and Sweden.
Civil engineering continued to grow in 2015, with a total growth of 3.3% estimated. In 2015 all Central-Eastern European countries experienced significant growth as they tried to absorb all available EU funds from the previous programming period. Poland, the seventh biggest market in 2015 in civil engineering performance, was projected to accelerate the growth and a double-digit growth is expected each year until 2018. Civil engineering output will decrease by 0.6% to 2.7% in 2016, but has a promising forecast for 2017, 4.2% growth, which will be followed by a further 2.8% growth in 2018.
What seems particular in 2016 is that all the six biggest markets of Europe – Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Poland – are among the largest positive contributors to growth, which is something that has not happened for years. From the total 3% predicted growth for 2016, six countries are contributing by 2.3 percentage points. In other words, out of the total 3% expansion of the market (estimated to be EUR 40bln) 75% will be produced by these countries, which is around EUR 30bln.
For further details, see the Euroconstruct website: www.euroconstruct.org/pressinfo/pressinfo.php .